bayesian-estimation

This skill covers Bayesian estimation and inference in quantitative social science. Use when the user is specifying priors, running MCMC, diagnosing chain convergence, or reporting posterior summaries — including hierarchical models, Bayesian structural models, and small-sample settings where priors regularize. Triggers on "Bayesian estimation", "Bayesian inference", "MCMC", "Markov chain Monte Carlo", "Stan", "PyMC", "NumPyro", "prior", "posterior", "credible interval", "Bayesian structural", "Bayesian BLP", "Bayesian DSGE", "hierarchical model", "random effects Bayesian", "posterior predictive check", "Bayes factor", "prior predictive check", "NUTS", "HMC", "Hamiltonian Monte Carlo", "R-hat", "rhat", "effective sample size", "ESS", "Bayesian calibration", "posterior distribution", "prior elicitation", "weakly informative prior", "brms", "rstanarm", "cmdstanpy", "pymc", "arviz".

请帮我安装这个 Agent Skill：https://github.com/brycewang-stanford/Auto-Empirical-Research-Skills/tree/main/skills/11-James-Traina-compound-science/skills/bayesian-estimation

1. 先读取该目录下的 SKILL.md 和其他文件，检查是否有可疑内容（执行未知脚本、读取密钥、向外发送数据等），用中文告诉我它会做什么、需要哪些权限；
2. 等我确认后，再把整个目录安装到 ~/.claude/skills/bayesian-estimation/（如果你不是 Claude Code，安装到你自己约定的 skills 目录）；
3. 安装后告诉我怎么触发它。

git clone --depth 1 --filter=blob:none --sparse https://github.com/brycewang-stanford/Auto-Empirical-Research-Skills.git /tmp/bayesian-estimation-src
cd /tmp/bayesian-estimation-src && git sparse-checkout set "skills/11-James-Traina-compound-science/skills/bayesian-estimation"
mkdir -p ~/.claude/skills && cp -r "skills/11-James-Traina-compound-science/skills/bayesian-estimation" ~/.claude/skills/bayesian-estimation

Skill 可以让智能体执行脚本。安装第三方 Skill 前务必看一遍内容，详见「安全」一课。